The Federal Reserve voted to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday and signaled that it’s not in any hurry to resume raising rates in 2019. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell used words like “patient” to describe the Fed’s latest approach to increases. His change in tone follows four rate hikes last year. The Fed’s benchmark rate is not directly tied to mortgage rates but does often influence them.
Since the Fed has indicated a more cautious tone about the future of rate hikes, mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac has revised its mortgage rate forecasts to a lower average for 2019.
After climbing for several months, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates began to let up at the end of the year, averaging 4.6 percent in 2018 and falling to a nine-month low of 4.45 percent in early January.
Freddie Mac predicts that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will now average 4.7 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2020. Freddie Mac’s Economic Research Group says in its January forecast that it expects the moderation in mortgage rates to offer some relief to the previously strained housing market. “Home buyers are very sensitive to changing interest rates and will likely respond positively if mortgage rates remain below 5 percent,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
The Fed’s rate hike in December was its ninth quarter-point increase in the past three years since the Fed began to gradually raise rates from record lows in December 2014. After Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed will keep its key short-term rate in a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.
“In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate,” a statement from the Federal Reserve read. The Fed said that economic activity has been “rising at a solid rate” and it does expect continued growth, but noted several political uncertainties—such as fallout from the government shutdown—and a slowdown in foreign economies as reason for a more cautionary approach.
After weeks of moderating, mortgage rates moved up slightly this week. But aspiring home buyers may be able to breathe a sigh of relief: Freddie Mac economists revised their forecasts this week to predict 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average below the 5 percent threshold for at least the next two years.
That will bode well for the housing market, which has become very rate sensitive. With mortgage rates slightly up this week, purchase applications for mortgages fell this week after soaring early this year, notes Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
“However, softening house price appreciation along with increasing inventory of homes on the market—and historically low mortgage rates—should give a boost to the spring homebuying season,” Khater says.
The following are the national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Jan. 31:
30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.46 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week’s 4.45 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.22 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.89 percent, with an average 0.4 point, increasing from last week’s 3.88 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.68 percent.
5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 3.96 percent, with an average 0.3 point, rising from last week’s 3.90 percent average. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.53 percent.
Median home sale prices zoomed to an all-time high last year, helping home sellers net higher profits.
The average home price gain since purchase was $61,000 in 2018, up from $50,000 last year, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ Year-End 2018 U.S. Home Sales Report. That marks the highest gains for sellers since 2006. In 2018, sellers averaged a 32.6 percent return on investment compared to their original purchase price.
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The U.S. median home price in 2018 was $248,000, up 5.5 percent from 2017 to a new record high.
“While 2018 was the most profitable time to sell a home in more than 12 years, those along the coasts, reaped the most gains,” says Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “However, those are the same areas where homeowners are staying put longer. The economy is still going strong and home loan rates remain historically low. But there are potential clouds on the horizon. The effects of last year’s tax cuts are wearing off as limits on homeowner tax deductions are in place.”
ATTOM researchers analyzed 217 metro areas with populations greater than 200,000 to find the highest returns on investment. The cities were predominantly located in the west.
The highest average returns on investment for home sellers last year were in San Jose, Calif. (108 percent); San Francisco (78.6 percent); Seattle (70.7 percent); Merced, Calif. (66.4 percent); and Santa Rosa, Calif. (66.1 percent).
Fixed-rate mortgages have been inching lower in recent weeks, but the percentage of borrowers being tempted by the even lower rates of adjustable-rate mortgages is rising. ARMs posted the highest share of originations in December since Ellie Mae, a maker of software used to process mortgage applications, began tracking them in 2011.
The share of ARMs reached 9.2 percent in December 2018, up from a 5.6 percent share a year prior, according to the firm’s December Origination Insight Report, Mortgage News Daily reports. With an ARM, an interest rate is usually locked in for a set period, such as five to seven years, and then will change based on market conditions.
“With the strong demand for housing and rapid increase in property value appreciation, more consumers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages in order to gain additional flexibility when competing for a home,” Jonathan Corr, president and CEO of Ellie Mae, told Mortgage News Daily. “This is another key indication of how demand has outpaced supply in the housing market as consumers pursue their dream of homeownership.”
Overall, mortgages for home purchases comprised 70 percent of mortgage originations in December, according to Ellie Mae’s report. Closings moved faster, too. The time to close on a purchase loan fell to 47 days in December.
Real estate indicators are starting to shift in favor of home buyers as the housing market sets its sights on spring. Mortgages are getting cheaper, housing inventories are growing, and home prices are rising at a slower pace.
Mortgage rates have been holding steady for the last few weeks. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.45 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac. Late last year, mortgage rates were nearing the 5 percent threshold, but several weeks of decreases have offered some relief to home shoppers. The five-year adjustable-rate mortgage has been averaging under 4 percent, landing at 3.90 percent last week, Freddie Mac reports.
Home buyers are responding to the lower rates. New mortgage applications of home buyers across the country surged to the highest level since 2010 during the week ending Jan. 11, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications were 9 percent higher than they were the week before.
Housing inventories have grown significantly in many markets too, offering buyers a lot more choices. That is helping to put a tighter lid on home price growth as sellers face greater competition. Homebuilders are reportedly lowering their prices in many areas too. A quarter of newly built homes saw a price cut during the last quarter of last year.
The decrease in mortgage rates is likely to boost home sales this year, compensating for the decline in sales recorded last year while pushing prices up modestly, says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “With the return of homebuyers, home prices look to rise again in 2019, but with one big difference. For the first time in years, income gains of a projected 3.5 percent will outpace home price growth of around 2 percent. That is healthy and a turn toward better housing affordability,” Yun writes in a Jan. 24 opinion piece in the newspaper The Hill.
Certainly, for home sellers, lower prices may not sound ideal. But housing analysts say sellers need to set a realistic price up front to find a buyer as the market shifts.
“The good news here for sellers is that—with interest rates down and slowing prices—more prospective buyers should be encouraged to get off the sidelines, shop around, and consider making offers,” writes Kenneth Harney, a syndicated real estate columnist for The Washington Post.
Two cats in Silicon Valley are the pampered renters and sole occupiers of a $1,500 per month studio.
The landlord says the cats haven’t made much fuss, keep to themselves, lounge around in a cat tree most of the day, and always pay their rent on time—the prrrrfect tenants, you might say.
“It’s quirky isn’t it?” landlord David Callisch told CBS San Francisco (KPIX). “People love their pets, they’re part of their family.”
The father of Victoria Amith, a freshman at Azusa Pacific University in Southern California is paying for his daughter’s cats to have their own pad because she coundn’t take the cats, Louise and Tina, to her dorm with her when she started school. The man’s fiance’s dog and the cats weren’t getting along at his home in the Bay Area, so he approached Callisch and offered to rent the studio, located behind a single-family home in Willow Glen, Calif., for the pets.
Studios in Willow Glen typically rent for just under $2,000 per month, KPIX reports, so the cats are getting a bargain at $1,500. Callisch feeds the cats every day. Amith visits them on breaks from school.
Amith emphasizes that the cats are using space in someone’s backyard and that the arrangement is temporary “There’s obviously a huge housing issue in the area, and I don’t want people to be like, ‘Oh, this is taking away the housing,’” Amith told KPIX.
The paint companies have released their color forecasts for the new year. Here are the hot hues expected to make waves in 2019. Which one is your favorite?
Living Coral / Photo Credit: Furniture Choice
Living Coral: Paint company Pantone announced “Living Coral” as its 2019 Color of the Year. The orange shade with golden undertones embodies “warmth and comfort,” Pantone says. “Living Coral easily delivers a graphic pop to a space,” says Rebecca Snowden, an interior style adviser at Furniture Choice. “Introducing it through small elements will brighten up a room, creating a sense of coziness that’s also fresh and chic.” For example, the energetic tone can liven up cushions, throws, and rugs in a living room. In a dining area, color blocked plates and coasters in the peachy hue may add some spark to a table arrangement, she says. Read Furniture Choice’s guide to weaving in more Living Coral into your home design.
Blueprint / Photo credit: Behr
Blueprint: Behr has gone blue with its top color choice for the new year. Blueprint is a mid-tone blue that is described as warmer than denim but softer than navy. Behr is embracing a full range of blue, teal, and grays as key color choices in 2019. “Layer light and dark blues on walls, cabinets, furniture, and decor for impactful results,” Behr says.
Cavern Clay / Photo Credit: Sherwin-Williams
Cavern Clay: Sherwin-Williams has picked a warm terra-cotta color called Cavern Clay as its 2019 Color of the Year. The color embodies an American Southwest, modern desert aesthetic. “This warm, earthy hue is both casual and refined,” Sherwin-Williams says. “It can be the backdrop of a playful, welcoming dining room or kitchen when paired with bright tiles, warm stone, and sculptural greenery.” It also compliments materials like leather and woodgrains.
Metropolitan Gray / Photo Credit: Benjamin Moore
Metropolitan Gray: Benjamin Moore expects the gray trend to continue in the new year, which is shown through its neutral pick with Metropolitan Gray. “It’s a color in the neutral spectrum that references a contemplative state of mind and design,” says Ellen O’Neill, Benjamin Moore’s director of strategic design intelligence. “Not arresting nor aggressive, this understated yet glamorous gray creates a soothing, impactful common ground.”
Farmhouse design continues to gain popularity in kitchen remodels, according to the 2019 Houzz Kitchen Trends Study, a survey of more than 1,300 homeowners who are planning or in the midst of a kitchen project.
Eighty-two percent of renovating homeowners this year who are changing the style of their kitchen says they’re making it farmhouse. Farmhouse now nearly ties contemporary in popularity (14 percent versus 15 percent, respectively). Transition—a mix of tradition and modern—still remains the most popular in kitchen design at 21 percent.
“This year’s study illuminates a number of prominent trends in today’s kitchen,” says Nino Sitchinava, Houzz principal economist. “Engineered materials are clearly taking over natural stone in countertops and flooring. Thanks in part to the versatility of these materials, white continues to dominate the kitchen, from cabinets to countertops and walls. Finally, rapid advances in wireless and voice technology are transforming some kitchens into ‘air traffic control’ centers of the home.”
Kitchens aren’t cheap to redo and are about 10 percent more expensive this year, according to the study. The median kitchen renovation cost $11,000, while a major renovation to a large kitchen (more than 200 feet) cost $33,000.
Here are some more kitchen trends that emerged from the Houzz report:
Gray cabinets: White cabinets remain the most common (43 percent), but gray cabinets are winning over more fans. About one in ten homeowners—or 11 percent—chose gray cabinets for their kitchen. Gray cabinets are then often paired with brushed or satin nickel door hardware.
White and quartz countertops: Granite continues to decline in popularity, while engineered quartz is surpassing all of the natural stone materials combined among kitchen remodelers who updated their countertops. White counters are gaining steam, making up nearly one in every three upgraded countertops.
Mixed finishes: More than half of homeowners—54 percent—say they’ve mixed metal finishes across their fixtures and hardware. For those who mix and match, nickel is popular, but many then opt for oil-rubbed bronze or brushed or satin black finish for door hardware and lighting fixtures.
Engineered flooring: Only a quarter of remodelers who updated their flooring chose natural hardwood, marking a significant decline from recent years. Engineered flooring—such as engineered wood, vinyl, and laminate—have become nearly twice as popular in the meantime.
Appliance finish: Stainless steel may still rule, but black stainless is growing more popular as an appliance finish. It is now in one of every 10 upgraded kitchens. Read The New Kitchen Finish: Black Stainless
High-tech add-ons: More than half of upgraded faucets are high-tech, including water efficiency, no-fingerprint coating, and touch-free activation. Other high-tech features in the kitchen include wireless controls in upgraded appliances and home assistants.
About 75 percent of non-homeowners believe homeownership is still part of their American dream, according to a new analysis released by the National Association of REALTORS®. However, the biggest barrier for non-owners is that they are currently unable to afford a mortgage, according to the fourth-quarter 2018 Homeownership Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey, based on more than 8,000 consumer responses.
During the last quarter of 2018, 43 percent of non-owners said they did not own a home because they were not in a position to purchase one, which is down from 49 percent who said the same in the third quarter. Thirty-three percent said they do not own because current life circumstances are not suitable for ownership, and 16 percent said they currently need the flexibility of renting.
So what could encourage them to buy? Thirty-one percent of non-owners said an improvement in their financial situation would be the biggest motivator to encourage them to buy a home. Thirty-percent also said a change in their lifestyle, such as getting married, starting a family, or retiring, would also be a big motivator to buy.
“The lack of affordable and moderately priced homes has forced non-homeowners to delay achieving that part of the American dream,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, as the survey confirms, significant lifestyle changes like marriage or starting a family often spur non-owners to pursue homeownership.”
The real estate industry will soon see what kind of impact weeks of declining mortgage rates have had on home sales. Will it provide the boost some experts are predicting?
Since early November, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen nearly half a percentage point, from 4.94 percent to 4.45 percent, where it stood at the end of this week. This could provide an important incentive for potential home buyers to make a move. The 30-year rate, which didn’t budge in the latest week of reporting, was on a downward trend for six consecutive weeks prior. Existing-home sales in November were already bouncing back from unusually low volume in the summer months, gaining 1.9 percent month over month, due largely to stability in the overall economy, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®. But when NAR’s data for December existing-home sales is released Tuesday, it may reveal whether lower mortgage rates have escalated sales gains.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told Yahoo! Finance on Thursday that he expects recent declines in mortgage rates to keep home sales on an upward track—possibly leading to an additional 200,000 transactions this year. “Buyers will want to take advantage of the lower rates,” Yun says. “This additional demand will help absorb inventory. Both home prices and home sales will be lifted.”
Though rates were flat in the latest week, due largely to weaker manufacturing data and a prediction that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate alone for now, other industry experts echo Yun’s positive outlook. “Interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy—such as consumer mortgage demand and homebuilder construction sentiment—are on the mend, which indicates that lower interest rates are beginning to have a positive impact on some segments of the economy,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Jan. 17:
30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 4.45 percent, with an average 0.4 point, unchanged from last week’s average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.04 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.88 percent, with an average 0.4 point, dropping from last week’s 3.89 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.49 percent.
5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): averaged 3.87 percent, with an average 0.3 point, rising slightly from last week’s 3.83 percent average. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.46 percent.
